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In the statistical area of survival analysis, an accelerated failure time model (AFT model) is a parametric model that provides an alternative to the commonly used proportional hazards models. Whereas a proportional hazards model assumes that the effect of a covariate is to multiply the hazard by some constant, an AFT model assumes that the effect of a covariate is to accelerate or decelerate the life course of a disease by some constant. This is especially appealing in a technical context where the 'disease' is a result of some mechanical process with a known sequence of intermediary stages. ==Model specification== In full generality, the accelerated failure time model can be specified as :: where denotes the joint effect of covariates, typically . (Specifying the regression coefficients with a negative sign implies that high values of the covariates ''increase'' the survival time, but this is merely a sign convention; without a negative sign, they increase the hazard.) This is satisfied, if the probability density function of the event is taken to be , from which is follows for the survival function that . From this it is easy to see that the moderated life time is distributed such that and the unmoderated life time have the same distribution. Consequently, can be written as :: where the last term is distributed as , i.e. independently of . This reduces the accelerated failure time model into regression analysis (typically a linear model) where represents the fixed effects, and represents the noise. Different distributional forms of imply different distributional forms of , i.e. different baseline distributions of the survival time. It is typical of survival-analytic contexts, that many of the observations are censored, i.e. we only know that , not . In fact, the former case represents survival, while the later case represents an event/death/censoring during the follow-up. These right-censored observations can pose technical challenges for estimating the model, if the distribution of is unusual. The interpretation of in accelerated failure time models is straight forward: E.g. means that everything in the relevant life history of an individual happens twice as fast. For example, if the model concerns the development of a tumor, it means that all of the pre-stages progress twice as fast as for the unexposed individual, implying that the expected time until a clinical disease is 0.5 of the baseline time. However, this does not mean that the hazard function is always twice as high - that would be the proportional hazards model. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)』 ■ウィキペディアで「accelerated failure time model」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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